Week 7 Fantasy Preview: It’s Crabtree Time!

Written on October 24, 2009 by Forrest in Fantasy Football, Player Breakdowns
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Let’s take a look at a few of the players that fantasy owners are following like crazy for Week 7.

Shaun Hill (SF, QB): Hill still has his starting job, though I really can’t remember the last time any fantasy owner cared about a 49er quarterback. Nonetheless, Michael Crabtree debuts, so he should definitely help in the passing game—and ultimately for Hill’s job security. Hill is a great choice as a QB2 this week.

Eli Manning (NYG, QB): He’s been struggling with a foot injury as of late but looks good to go. Eli should post top 10 stats for his owners this week against the Cardinals’ secondary.

Aaron Rodgers (GB, QB): His foot looks good to go for this weekend’s juicy matchup against the Cleveland Browns. A sure-fire top five QB starter.

Mike Bell (NO, RB): He averaged 2.3 yards per carry but scored last week as well. The New Orleans running backs are going to run into a brick wall this weekend—also known as the Miami Dolphins defense. Sit Bell, knowing that he may just punch one in this weekend.

Justin Fargas (OAK, RB): Ya know, that Oakland rushing offense may not be as bad as we think. Seriously.

Fargas averaged 3.8 yards per carry and got the bulk of the carries against Philadelphia. I like the Jets matchup more than most. Expect modest RB2 numbers out of Fargas, even with Michael Bush sharing carries. Fargas can also be used as a flex.

Laurence Maroney (NE, RB): Maybe, just maybe this guy can be fantasy relevant again. The Tampa rush defense is terrible, so Maroney should have a field day as the lead back. Of course, who knows with Belichick’s gameplanning. Yes, Maroney is a RB1 this week.

Jonathan Stewart (CAR, RB): He practiced on Friday, but is still listed as questionable for the Bills game. The Bills’ rushing defense is a pretty big joke, so look for solid RB2 numbers IF he plays.

Austin Collie (IND, WR): If there is anyone that can pull what Tom Brady did last week to the Titans, it’s Peyton Manning. He is going to light up the St. Louis Rams, and Collie will be a big beneficiary.

If he is still available in your league (and I don’t know why he would be), he is absolutely worth picking up. Collie is a great WR2 this week.

Michael Crabtree (SF, WR): The talented former holdout is going to make his debut this weekend. Did you roster him in your league? Well, your league better be damn deep. Crabtree has a decent matchup at Houston, but with Shaun Hill throwing to him, temper your expectations for this week.

Mike Wallace (PIT, WR): Wallace has had two catches per game in the last three games he’s played. He isn’t getting enough targets at the moment, but Pittsburgh has carved out a nice role for him in the passing game. He isn’t worth starting against Minnesota this weekend, but stash him away for potential late-season value.

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Top 10 Quarterbacks: In-Season Rankings

Written on October 17, 2009 by Forrest in Fantasy Football, Player Breakdowns
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Now that we are five weeks into the fantasy football season, it’s time to take a look, position-by-position, at how players have performed to date.

Today, we’ll start with the Top 10 quarterbacks to date, sorted by ESPN Fantasy Football points. Are the players in the top 10 as of today going to be there at the end?

1. Peyton Manning (1,645 passing yards, 12 TD-4 INT, 105 points)

The model of fantasy consistency, Peyton Manning has posted 300+ passing yards in all five games this season. After a bye week in Week 6, Manning will feast on the St. Louis Rams defense.

He is the best quarterback in fantasy football to date and should end the season as a top-three option.

2. Ben Roethlisberger (1,470 passing yards, 8 TD-5 INT, 91 points)

Big Ben wasn’t going as a starter in most fantasy drafts, but owners who took the plunge on him certainly have gotten a great value to date. He has tacked on two rushing scores to date.

Roethlisberger is a solid quarterback in a strong offense, and with Rashard Mendenhall coming into his own, I forsee Roethlisberger ending the season as a solid top-10 fantasy quarterback.

3. Matt Schaub (1,418 passing yards, 10 TD-4 INT, 86 points)

While fantasy owners owning Schaub have to be awfully happy with him to date, I have my doubts about his staying power. His worst game came against the New York Jets in Week 1, and he didn’t play too well against Oakland in Week 4.

The Texans seem to be open to chucking the football at will. However, I believe that Houston will balance out their offense with the run once Steve Slaton becomes consistently good (which he is). Schaub is not a top-3 quarterback, but could finish the season just within the top 10.

4. Eli Manning (1,212 passing yards, 10 TD-2 INT, 78 points)

Manning has undoubtedly benefited from fast development from his wide receivers. Having Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks all contributing has been huge for his fantasy value.

He is a legitimate fantasy option and should end the season in the top-6 quarterbacks. Look for Steve Smith for consistent week-to-week production.

4. Aaron Rodgers (1,098 passing yards, 6 TD-1 INT, 78 points)

It’s amazing to me that Rodgers has been able to post the numbers he has considering how much he has had to evade pressure.

The Packers have a great quarterback here (260 passing yards or more for three consecutive weeks), but he is taking a ton of sacks. Unless the Packers’ pass-blocking improves, Rodgers remains fairly at-risk for a late season injury. Try shopping him around, but realize he is a top-5 option at the position. And if you keep him, have a solid backup in place.

6. Joe Flacco (1,289 passing yards, 9 TD-5 INT, 76 points)

Like Roethlisberger, Flacco was widely drafted as a backup quarterback but has stepped it up big time early on this season. However, Flacco is a guy that you must adjust your expectations for.

After three solid weeks to start the season, Flacco has shown two warning signs in the last two games he has played. His game was well off against New England, where he completed 57% of his passes. He only had 31 attempts (second-fewest in any game this season) in Week 5’s game against the Bengals, and threw two picks.

Flacco should end the season as a top-15 option, but he is currently overachieving at the moment and should be sold high.

7. Tom Brady (1,344 passing yards, 6 TD-2 INT, 75 points)

Brady was likely among the top two quarterbacks drafted in your league, but he has not performed like one to date. While the New England offense isn’t showing the bite that it featured in 2007, Brady is a player that must be on a BUY LOW status.

He will end the season as a top-10 option as Moss and Welker see more targets, and if the New England offense kicks it into high gear soon, he has top-three potential. Brady has a chance to feast on Tennessee and Tampa Bay before his bye, so get him now if you can.

8. Brett Favre (1,069 passing yards, 9 TD-2 INT, 73 points)

Brett Favre started out last season red-hot as well through the first four weeks. Fantasy owners who own Favre need to realize that he isn’t getting any younger, and he collapsed in the last five weeks of last season (five games of 61.4 or less passer rating).

While Favre is a valuable real-life player for the Vikings, he cannot be relied upon to deliver solid fantasy numbers the entire year. Look for Favre to finish the year around the 15-20 ranking.

8. Tony Romo (1,341 passing yards, 6 TD-4 INT, 73 points)

Good Romo or bad Romo? If you own Romo and have him as your fantasy starter, you’ve seen the best and you’ve seen the worst. Romo is an inconsistent option but is valuable if used against poor defenses.

Romo is not a top-10 option, but should finish just outside of it. A solid QB to use as a platoon option, but nothing more.

8. Kyle Orton (1,236 passing yards, 10 TD-1 INT, 73 points)

I’ve discussed Kyle Orton plenty of times here at RotoMind, and believe that he will remain a solid top-10 option throughout the rest of the season. He has thrown a touchdown pass in every game this year and has improved his completion percentage weekly since Week 2.

In the off chance he is still available in your league, you must get this guy now. Orton is a great fit in Josh McDaniel’s offense and will continue to deliver solid value for fantasy owners.

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Jason Campbell: Fantasy Football In-Season Sleeper 2009

Written on October 16, 2009 by Forrest in Fantasy Football, Sleepers
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Let’s face it, the Washington Redskins are not a very good football team. With their 2-3 record, many Redskins fans are already calling for Jim Zorn to be fired.

But there is a player on the Redskins who could deliver significant fantasy value on the balance of season, and that is Jason Campbell.

Campbell is only owned in 37.0% of ESPN leagues, which means that he is probably available in your format as well.

On the season, Jason Campbell has 1,108 passing yards with a 6-5 TD/INT ratio. Not spectacular numbers, but let’s check out some deeper statistics.

In four out of five games this season, Campbell has thrown one interception or less. His Week 4 game against Tampa Bay looks like a solid outlier, when he threw three picks.

Another statistic to consider: in four out of five games, he also has completed 65.7% of his passes or higher. He is an accurate quarterback, even under pressure.

The Redskins’ offense as a whole has not produced very much to date, but look for Campbell to continue passing efficiently. The team should continue to improve in the future, which would help Campbell’s overall numbers.

The upside on Campbell? Well, he can evolve into a top 12 fantasy quarterback by the end of the season. More realistically, he will finish the season as a high end fantasy backup. He could become a valuable asset as a platoon fantasy starter, depending on the matchup.

If you are in need of a backup quarterback with upside, look no further than Jason Campbell. Roster him now before he starts pumping out some nice statistical lines.

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Week 6 Value Adjustments

Written on October 14, 2009 by Forrest in Fantasy Football, Player Breakdowns
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During the course of a fantasy season, player’s value can adjust significantly along the way. Let’s take a look at some players that should be upgraded, downgraded, or held neutral in fantasy football leagues.

QB David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars

Garrard is one of those players that is becoming more and more inconsistent by the week. Three out of five weeks this season, Garrard has failed to register a touchdown pass. His QB rating has fluctuated significantly from week-to-week as well (75.7-81 8 has been his mid-QB rating range to date).

Garrard cannot be counted on as a top-ten QB at the position, but could be a decent start in a bye week. I drafted him myself as my main backup to Brady. VALUE: Key Backup

Matt HasselbeckQB Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

As recently as 2007, Hasselbeck was a fantasy stud QB. He has played in three games this season, excelling in his games against the St. Louis Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars (not necessarily the toughest matchups). He struggled against a decent San Francisco defense in Week 2.

Hasselbeck has only been sacked twice this season, and while that statistic is based on a small sample size, it is still important to note. I believe that Hasselbeck is a low-end fantasy starter, so value him as such unless he completely implodes in the future. VALUE: Borderline starter

Sammy Morris, New England Patriots

Now that Fred Taylor (NE, RB) is out for a while, Morris has stepped in and performed well. In his last game against Denver, Morris registered 68 rushing yards on 17 carries.

Morris has recorded three straight weeks of 35+ receiving yards as well, so he is capable in the receiving game as well.

Morris is a good option who should continue to receive his fair share of carries. VALUE: Second running back / Flex option

RB Correll Buckhalter, Denver Broncos

With his injury, he could be out another week, which makes it great for any fantasy owner looking to trade for or acquire Buckhalter off waivers/free agency. He is averaging 7.2 yards per carry on 37 carries this season.

When he returns from injury, expect the Broncos to keep him involved. I highly doubt any coach would give a rookie full-time carries when the team has a veteran averaging a high yards-per-carry average. VALUE: Flex option / Bench depth

Jamal LewisRB Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns

Yup, even the running back on what could be the league’s worst offense appears like he has some value. Lewis carried the ball 31 times in Week 5 for 117 rushing yards.

The Browns’ QBs are terrible, so Lewis will stay involved no matter the opponent. Add him immediately if he was dropped in your league, as he is (believe it or not) a worthwhile #2 runner. Value: Second Running Back

WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams

Avery caught five passes for 87 yards and a touchdown in Week 5, and with the Rams reeling as expected, look for Avery to remain involved along with Steven Jackson (STL, RB).

He’ll be targeted often as the top wideout in this offense, so look out for him on your waiver wire. Value: Third Wide Receiver / Flex Option

WR Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants

Steve Smith (NYG, WR) is the clear #1 wide receiver in this offense, but you could do worse than Nicks for bench depth. In Week 4 and Week 5, he had 3 and 6 targets.

Mario Manningham (NYG, WR) will still be a threat for catches, and it will negatively affect Nicks’ value. While owners may flock to the waiver wire looking for Nicks, realize that he is only worth stashing away on your bench, with third wide receiver potential. VALUE: Bench depth

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“We’re 5-0 With Kyle As Our Quarterback.”: Week 6 Waiver Wire Pickups

Written on October 13, 2009 by Forrest in Fantasy Football, Waiver Wire
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Some words from Lovie Smith that will never be forgotten: “We’re 10-2 with Rex [Grossman] as our quarterback.”

Well, the Denver Broncos are 5-0 with Kyle as their quarterback. And he appears to be a great fit in an exciting Denver offense.

Let’s take a look at some of the players you should consider adding to your team from the Week 6 Waiver Wire.

QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, well, you must be Kyle Orton. Orton is a legitimate fantasy quarterback.

Orton has posted a QB rating of UNDER 92.1 just once this season. He chucked the ball 48 times and passed for 330 passing yards with a 72% completion percentage.

Yes, he is a must-own in all leagues where he is still available. Orton could finish the season as a top-10, and dare I say it, top-5 option at the position.

Chad HenneQB Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins

Come on Rex, Dan Marino?

But a closer look at Henne should raise some excitement in any fantasy owner. Let’s see, a 76.9% completion rate against the Jets, 2 touchdown passes, on Monday night. It is clear that Henne has tremendous upside.

Could Chad Henne be the next Tom Brady? The Michigan product stepped in for an injured veteran. Just saying…the guy is worth a pickup if you need a backup quarterback. If you have room on your roster, don’t hesitate to stash Henne as a third starter. You could have a gem on your hands.

RB Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders

Well, the Raiders are bad. But Michael Bush is a serviceable runner who gave a valiant effort against the Giants.

He got 12 carries and averaged 3.1 yards per carry, adding a score. While he did split carries with Justin Fargas (OAK, RB), Bush is clearly the better runner. His overall ability gives the Raiders a chance to run out the clock when they are down by 30.

Oakland has a tough matchup against the Eagles this weekend, but he should be once again serviceable for owners with massive bye week/injury issues.

RB Kevin Faulk, New England Patriots

If you’re in a PPR league, this guy could be a sneaky pickup this week. Fred Taylor (NE, RB) is injured and could be out for a while, leaving Sammy Morris (NE, RB) in the spotlight.

New England should play around with Tennessee this weekend, so Faulk should get garbage time carries and some catches. A worthwhile one-week pickup, at the least.

Miles AustinWR Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys

250 receiving yards? While production like that cannot be expected on a week-to-week basis out of Austin, he is a talented wide receiver who will continue to receive a ton of looks from Tony Romo (DAL, QB).

Dallas is on bye this week, but roster him now and save yourself the headache when the next waiver wire period rolls around next week.

WR Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles

With 6 catches, 142 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Buccaneers, fantasy owners are flocking to their waiver wire to try to get ahold of him.

He is a volatile pickup whose production can differ significantly from week to week. In Philadelphia, no one has any idea where the ball will be thrown.

But expect Maclin to continue seeing a moderate number of targets, and with his speediness and game-breaking ability, a few long scores from here on out are to be expected.

WR Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts

Collie had 8 catches on 9 targets against Tennessee last Sunday…not so fast Pierre Garcon (IND, WR) owners.

Garcon and Collie are volatile fantasy choices from week-to-week, but both are extremely talented players and will see nice playing time while Anthony Gonzalez (IND, WR) is out. If either is available on your waiver wire, make the claim.

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